Flatbed report: Tariff-driven pull-forward drives up April’s truckload ton-mile index

In April 2025, the seasonally adjusted Trucking Ton-Mile Index ( TTMI), authored by Professor Jason Miller and Yemisi Bolumole at Michigan State University saw a 1.6% year-over-year increase. This marks an acceleration from the 0.7% gain observed in March 2025. The growth was largely fueled by heightened activity in several key sectors, including:

• Chemicals (excluding pharmaceuticals), where output reached its highest point since Q3 2018.
• Wood products manufacturing.
• Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing.
• Machinery manufacturing and wholesaling.
• Professional equipment wholesaling.
• Electrical and electronic goods wholesaling.

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It’s worth noting that some of the demand, particularly for machinery, professional equipment, and electrical & electronic goods, might be due to a pull-forward effect. Conversely, sectors such as beverage, paper, and motor vehicles and parts experienced softer demand.

Load-to-Truck Ratio

Flatbed load post volume decreased by 4% last week, a typical seasonal adjustment. However, this volume remains 15% higher year-over-year. Concurrently, carrier equipment posts fell by 7%. These factors contributed to a 3% increase in the flatbed load-to-truck ratio, which reached 24.44.

Spot rates

The national average flatbed spot rate, excluding fuel, saw a $0.04 per mile decrease last week, settling at $2.13/mile. This rate is still $0.09 per mile higher than the same week in 2024. However, flatbed spot rates are expected to experience a seasonal decline from now until the end of August.