Dry Van Report: Rates cool off as summer freight demand normalizes - DAT Freight & Analytics - Blog
Dry Van Report: Rates cool off as summer freight demand normalizes
Dry van spot linehaul averaged $2.38 per mile this week, down 2.5%, or $0.06 per mile, from the prior week. Rates ran 45.6%, or $0.74 per mile, above the same week in 2025 and held about 33%, or $0.59 per mile, above the nine-year seasonal average, near the top of the historical range.
Bellwether states
The 10 dry van bellwether states posted a moves-weighted outbound rate of $3.06 per mile in Week 30, down 2.9%, or $0.09 per mile, week over week and up 47.9%, or $0.99 per mile, year over year. The roster carried 35.0% of all U.S. state-outbound van loads, in line with its recent baseline, which shows the core freight base behind the national number held steady.
Regional rate trends
| Rank | Origin Region | Avg RPM | WoW % | YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | $2.75 | -1.4% | +47.3% |
| 2 | Southeast | $2.65 | -5.5% | +53.6% |
| 3 | Ohio River | $2.62 | -2.3% | +45.3% |
| 4 | Carolinas | $2.57 | -4.5% | +49.9% |
| 5 | Great Lakes | $2.53 | -2.6% | +41.6% |
| 6 | South Central | $2.50 | -3.4% | +49.6% |
| 7 | Lower Midwest | $2.46 | -3.3% | +40.8% |
| 8 | Upper Atlantic | $2.15 | -1.1% | +32.3% |
| 9 | Lower Mountain | $2.02 | -2.9% | +40.0% |
| 10 | Florida-So Georgia | $1.90 | -7.3% | +54.1% |
The top 10 origins carried 87.7% of all U.S. outbound loads moved in the week. Upper Atlantic held up best week over week at -1.1%, while every leading origin eased from the prior week as summer volumes softened.
Market conditions
Dry van load posts in Week 30 were down 7.5% from the prior week but up 28.6% from a year ago. Equipment posts fell 3.2% on the week and ran 26.1% below last year, so posted freight and capacity both eased while loads pulled back faster. The load-to-truck ratio settled at 10.23, off 4.4% for the week yet 74.0% higher than a year ago, a direct read on how much capacity has left the lane.
Short-term outlook
RateCast projects dry van spot easing to $2.27 per mile by day 35 (08-29-26), about 4.1%, or $0.10 per mile, below the current $2.37. The day-35 uncertainty band spans roughly plus or minus $0.08, or 3.4% of the point forecast, the widest of the three equipment types this week, so treat the projection as a range rather than a fixed number. The end-of-forecast rate would still stand well above the $1.65 actual recorded near the same date a year earlier.